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It is useful to remind ourselves regularly of the capacity of human beings to persist in stupid beliefs in the face of significant, contradictory evidence.On 22 June, 1941*, the Third Reich launched , a massive invasion of the Soviet Union.The first explained the accumulation as part of a planned German invasion, and came from elements of Stalin’s own intelligence apparatus.

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Second, events that we think of in hindsight as tremendous shocks that come without warning have often taken months, years, or even longer periods to unravel.

In the time between the weak signals of change and the onset of a deeper crisis, there are often opportunities to prepare and adapt.

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The black swan has a venerable history as an illustration of the ancient epistemological problem of induction: simply stated, no number of observations of a given relationship are sufficient to prove that a different relationship cannot occur.

No amount of white swan sightings can guarantee that a different color swan is not out there waiting to be seen.

In the face of mounting evidence that their investment strategy is failing, “the two men simply couldn’t bring themselves to believe that the picture was as dire as the model suggested.” Returning to , the German military spent months building up its forces prior to the attack.

Stalin received two conflicting explanations for this.

In considering how we often collapse time when thinking about the past, I am reminded of a hilarious exchange from the movie happening as quickly as possible, and limiting the damage through timely learning.

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